There is a bit of a cottage industry in mocking mock drafts. In many cases they are tired missives baying for clicks. Ironic since mock drafts are click bait themselves. But if you look at enough of them, you can find some patterns. I’ve examined 18 mock drafts and these are some observations.
It’s an offense heavy draft
On average1, the draft is equally distributed between offense and defense. This draft looks to have a minimum of 19. 19 offensive players getting drafted in the top 32 picks has only occurred in 1968, 2004, and 20092. Most have this year to be 21 and one has 26 of 32 players drafted in the first round being on offense.
QB #2 is still in doubt
Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels is the front runner 13-5. He will be on the east coast, with Washington and New England his only predicted destinations. Drake Maye on the other hand is not the automatic alternative. Two have Maye going to the Giants via a trade. He’s been mocked to 5 and 11. In both of those edge cases, he’s destined for Minnesota.
What a difference a game makes
JJ McCarthy went from a Day 2 pick to a consensus top pick after winning a national championship. I won’t discuss the merits in this logic here. Most mocks have Minnesota trading with the Chargers to draft him. The move they made to get a second first round pick gives them ample capital to move from 11 to 5 or even 4.
Goodell should wear a flak jacket
In 2010 Gerald McCoy was the first to give the commissioner the big hug3 on the big stage. The big boys tend to be the ones that enjoy hugging the most. While the DT crop looks thin, the OT cupboard looks to be fully stocked. An average draft will have almost 4 tackles. This year has 6 consensus first rounders and 11 different tackles being selected in the first.
Trading isn’t only for Vikings
Practically everyone has Minnesota trading up to get JJ McCarthy. Who they trade with is up for debate. Draft maneuvering is one of the most compelling elements driving viewership. 10 or more trades is not uncommon. So which team is open for business. The Eagles GM, Howie Roseman, always seems to be up for a trade. Almost half of the mock drafts have them making a trade. Nothing blockbuster, but up to get “their guy”.
This and all other draft history calculations are based on the drafts from 2000-2023
Thanks to Mel Kiper on this nugget. The top 32 picks caveat is because there have only been 32 teams in the NFL since 2002.